5 Comments

Fantastic post (as always). I also worry most about the timing. Right now is not the optimal time to sell the asset. Infrastructure assets right now are clearly under some stress due to rising interest rates.

As a relatively new investor, I hoped that the CEO would have a couple of more years in the tank to realize the full value.

I really need to rethink my investment case here.

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Thanks for starting this thread. Like you, I have been a shareholder for 10 years and I saw LGT as a perfect pillar in my portfolio (safe, well managed and an asset light token-taker model that handles inflation well).

I have to admit I am not very happy with the timing of this strategic review. I have been burned in the past with a company with similar characteristics being put on sale at a low valuation low and I really felt like I lost a great company for too low a price.

I like your 3 scenarios but I am quite worried that strategic review triggers bids with a 40% premium which brings us at a poor ~7 EV/EBITDA which is inferior to large periods where the stocks has been in the last 10 years. Loosing Logistec to a paltry one time 40% jump would be a sad outcome from my perspective. Cross my fingers.

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I have the exact same concerns... An offer at 55-60$ and too much money left on the table. Hopefully the familly is not eager to take such an offer.

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Lets start a thread here? what are your thoughts? Do you think a deal will happen? At what price? What is a fair price in terms of EV / EBITDA? Are you a bit sad like me that the amazing public company might get privatized...

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I don't own it but I was thinking to initiate a position in the last 2 months. It seems that from the price of 40 there can't be much more room than 50-60% premium. It kinda worries me that the family wants to sell now, maybe some internal issues there, not much leverage here. I wish you both a very nice takeout offer of 9-12x EBITDA, and of course it is sad to sell always a very good company you own. I might jump in at 40-45 in case the deal doesn't go through.

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